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...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
NORTHEASTERN LA AND CENTRAL/SOUTHERN MS/AL...
...SUMMARY...
Numerous severe storms appear likely Sunday from east Texas to South
Carolina. Several strong tornadoes may occur from parts of
northeastern Louisiana into central/southern Mississippi and Alabama
Sunday afternoon and evening. A swath of damaging winds and a
continued tornado threat should also extend across Georgia and parts
of South Carolina through Sunday night. Large hail is likely over
much of the area as well.
...East Texas into the Lower Mississippi Valley and Southeast...
Mainly elevated storms posing an isolated large hail threat may be
ongoing Sunday morning in a low-level warm advection regime across
parts of MS/AL. This activity should spread eastward across AL into
parts of central/southern GA through the day as a weak,
low-amplitude shortwave trough shifts northeastward across the
Southeast. There appears to be some potential for the southern flank
of this activity to become surface based by Sunday afternoon across
parts of southern/central GA and vicinity. If this occurs, then all
severe hazards appear possible.
Across the southern Plains, a shortwave trough is forecast to
develop eastward through the day, eventually reaching the lower MS
Valley by Sunday evening, and continuing eastward across the
Southeast overnight. 50-70+ kt of mid-level flow attendant to this
shortwave trough will overspread these regions. At the surface, a
low will develop eastward across TX/OK to the lower MS Valley
through the day while gradually deepening. A warm front should lift
northward across parts of east TX into the lower MS Valley and
Southeast in response. The greatest severe weather threat Sunday
will likely focus along/south of this warm front. A cold front is
also forecast to sweep east-southeastward through the period in
tandem with the developing surface low.
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